2019 Predictions

Overall Ranking Summary by Position:

1st Place – Turtles

(Last Year Finished 3rd, Last Year Predicted 2nd)

Predicted Average: 1694

Oh boy! It’s happening….the whipping boys of the competition have arrived and the number 1 ranked WRS team. Very kindly helped along by decimating injuries to the Warriors, but much more importantly the introduction on #OneRuck. The Turtles were the single biggest beneficiary from this rule introduction and given this was pushed along by Camporeale, you’d have to wonder whether there has been a coup within the Cartel…… Julius Caesar style.

Breakout Player – Wayne Milera

Milera is every DT’ers dream, defender eligible, but playing through the midfield. Milera averaged 75 last year, but scored above that average for the last 7 games straight, and is an absolute lock to smash that this year. Milera could average over 90 this year and in doing so, make himself a premium defender and elevating the Turtles backline to the equal best backline in the league.

Time to Slide – Max Gawn

Boy is this going to be controversial. To be fair, its hard to pick many sliders at the Turtles. Gawn was an absolute monster last year averaging over 110 and I just dont think that is sustainable. There was a lot of talk during pre season on the Preuss acquisition and while I think he wont play a lot, he will play at times this year and that alone will be enough to dent the average. Gawn is still going to be a ruck force, but I think this is enough of a change to mean he is no longer the Beast that we come to expect.

Make or Break – Dayne Zorko

Very susceptible to a tag, how will Zorko fair with no Dayne Beams this year? The Turtles forward line is ranked 1 in the comp – but it falls away pretty quick after the top 5. Zorko plays week in week out, in form or not, so the Turtles need Zorko on top of his game to be able to win the coveted premiership this year. I reckon Zorko will figure it out enough to go big from time to time.

Summary

I cant believe I am writing this, but the Turtles look very very hard to beat. I still maintain that any of the top 5 can win it, but the Turtles would be hot favourites. Albeit with a long history of early draft picks, Cleaver has really put together a top notch list and deserves a lot of credit as he has actively traded his way into this position. Huge season coming up – the finals in particular are going to be close!

Rankings:

Defense 1st

Midfield 2nd

Ruck 5th

Forwards 1st

2nd Place – Warriors

(Last Year Finished 1st, Last Year Predicted 1st)

Predicted Average: 1665

Boy oh boy woweeeee!!! Back to back premiers, 3 in the last 4 years…but not to be this year. The Warriors have had one of the most horrific preseasons in the history of this league…and to make matters worse, have been dealt a killer blow with the #oneruck ruling. Lister will be furious at Cleaver, how dare he disrespect his leader….but is he still the leader?

Breakout player – Jaeger O’meara

A 96 average last year, means realistically he has had his breakout, but with no Titch in the middle this year, O’meara is the go to man. O’meara was always going to be a superstar and he is now showing that it is the case. O’meara should average over 100 this year and bolster the Warriors midfield that little bit more. Sure he will get more attention, but I dont envisage the Hawks being great this year, so teams will be happy to go head to head.

Time to Slide – Stef Martin

I genuinely think Stef is done. He may play well to start the year, playing as a sole ruckman, but its only a matter of time before that becomes a time share with some talent coming through underneath him. Stef is now 32 and his body has taken a fair amount of hurt over the journey. Stef averaged over 100 last year, and in my opinion there is every chance he drops a full 10 points in average this year. It all depends on when they plug in that timeshare.

Make or Break – Tom Mitchell

Can Tom make it back for DT finals? They are currently talking up his chances, and you just know the script is set for Lister to absorb injury after injury to scrape into finals, only to be at full strength for the important stuff. If Tom can make it back in time to be at full flight come August, Lister is a huge chance to make it a three peat – if he cannot make it back, The Warriors could be missing that extra bit of class to make the difference in the GF.

Summary

I should note, that I am expecting all players except Mitchell / Docherty to play the majority of the year, and therefore injuries or not, the Warriors were genuinely ranked 2nd. Having said that, their first month is going to be horrendous….you want to get the Warriors early…… but they will come home like a steam train. Never write off the Warriors, but I reckon they just fall short this year.

Rankings

Defense 3rd

Midfield 5th

Ruck 1st

Forwards 3rd

3rd Place – Vikings

(Last Year Finished 5th, Last Year Predicted 6th)

Predicted Average: 1652

The Mighty Fighting Vikes come in at 3rd place, a fair rise from their 5th place finish last year. As already mentioned, 5th to 1st is pretty close this year, so really the Vikes could finish anywhere in that range… thats right… the Vikes could win it all this year. They have some youngsters who could really make their mark this year in Taranto, McGrath and Berry and dont look to have anyone falling off a cliff any time soon. The biggest issue would appear to be midfield depth, but if they can stay healthy, the Vikes are a big show this year.

Breakout Player – Tim Taranto

As mentioned above, there were a few players that could’ve been chosen here, but I’ve settled on Taranto as the most obvious. Taranto averaged a very healthy 91 last year, and I think he can reach a triple figure average this year. Taranto has an incredibly DT friendly game and finds himself with a midfield role for the first time in his career. The departures of Scully, Shiel, Smith and others means that talent like Taranto can no longer be ignored through the middle. Paying a massive $20 for 30 touches in round 1 (after 33 and 28 in JLT) – get on this gun!

Time to Slide – Dayne Beams

I hate saying this, because he is up their with Steele as my favourite DT and real life players, but Dayne Beams will not be the elite DTer he has been for years. Dayne is too good in front of the big sticks, and I recon he will be rotated forward more than the rest of the stacked midfield group. Beams will always be a natural DTer, but unfortunately just not to quite the same extent this year. Will still be fun to watch back in the black and white.

Make or Break – Michael Hibberd

Last year was a strange one, with Hibberd averaging a paltry 69 after 92 the year before. I think we will work out pretty quickly if that was just an anomaly, or if that is his new role at Melbourne. Hibberd is an under rated lock down defender, so it wouldnt surprise me if this is the new norm, given the choice of running defenders at Melbourne. If Hibberd can bounce back to become a premium defender again, look out, because it could be the catalyst to the Vikings rise to the top.

Summary

These Vikes are dangerous. Most likely the only team that could break through the Cartel’s dominance, you would expect 6 other teams to be jumping on board. With new talent like Jack Lonie coming on board, its only a matter of time before the hype really starts to build. The forward line is the key to their success, but boasting some huge question marks with Hall, Acres and Crozier all capable of being great scorers, or duds……big question marks coming into the season, but big upside as well.

Rankings

Defense 5th

Midfield 4th

Ruck 5th

Forwards 2nd

4th Place – Blaze

(Last Year Finished 7th, Last Year Predicted 3rd)

Predicted Average: 1639

Ok, so probably the only team WRS got wrong last year, but i’m backing them again this year. The back line is star studded and is really the only reason why they are ranked this high. Picking up Sam Walsh this year (phew) is a huge result for the Blaze – they shouldnt have finished in the lottery last year, but struck it rich anyway. Sam Walsh could be the lynchpin in this side for years to come.

Breakout Player – Sam Walsh

Honestly – this guy looks ready made from day one. It’s a rare sort of player, that can come in and dominate from day 1 and more importantly consistently play a DT game as a rookie. I think Walsh can make Blaze best 18 from day 1, which is such a huge result for the Blaze from a rookie. Locked and loaded captain in a few years time.

Time to Slide – Ed Curnow

Unfortunately, Ed has already been told he is being shipped out of the midfield. Hes been given the duty of mentoring a young forward line, and while that can still produce fruitful fantasy results, its no inside midfield role. Curnow has shown that he can score with the best of them, but we are realistically looking at one of the biggest sliders in the comp right here.

Make or Break – Trent Dumont

This was nearly my breakout player, but I decided I wasn’t sold on him, so I’ve stuck him here. Dumont exploded late last year to post some big big scores, but who knows if he can consolidate those into this year with the additions of Polec, Hall and others. If Dumont can turn into a gun, the Blaze midfield all of a sudden looks reasonable, but if he is a dud, there are some real holes creeping in. Dumont is going to be the barometer for this side.

Summary

Blaze at 4 is not going to be liked by a lot of coaches, but that back line deserves credit. The forward line boasts some serious fire power as well, albeit with not a lot of depth. That is probably the story of the year for the Blaze – best side on paper can challenge the very best, any sort of injury and it falls away real real quick. Blaze are going to do damage all year, and then probably drop games they shouldn’t. I have them just edging ahead of the Boats though to make the 4. Time will ultimately tell.

Rankings

Defense 1st

Midfield 6th

Ruck 8th

Forwards 6th

5th Place – Boars

(Last Year Finished 2nd, Last Year Predicted 5th)

Predicted Average: 1633

I can see Camporeale now, he will be frothing at the mouth with anger, already on the phone to Cleaver and El Marko, asking them how they allowed this to happen. Cleaver will be looking in El Marko’s direction and El Marko will be telling his minions to get back in their place…he has it under control. The Boats are set to slip. Credit where it is due, they over achieved last year to make second place and I am under no illusions – this is a real possibility this year. In fact, I am about to make my first big WRS call of the year….. while there is one clear favourite – any of the remaining 5 teams can win it! Huge.

Breakout Player – Sean Darcy

Controversial one this, but the big rig looks like a DTer. Sandi is all but finished and Darcy is the future. Despite his size, he actually moves well and looks like a natural footballer around the ground. Darcy will cement himself as the ruckman of the future for Freo and I genuinely think he will supplant Sandi fairly early on and become an integral part of the Freo side.

Time to Slide – Gary Ablett

I actually think Gablett is cooked. The body is old and sore and there is no room in the midfield for him. Gablett will spend more and more time in the forward line, almost to the point he is a permanent forward, and while he will still have the odd monster score, the low games are really going to hurt the Boats this year. He will rest, he will get cotton wool balled, but he will also kill it at times. Gablett is going to be frustrating to own this year. You cannot bank on a 100 point average from the GOAT anymore.

Make or Break – Jordan De Goey

So the Boats are a pretty strong outfit – no doubt about that…their only real weakness is their forward line (ranked 6th). By my calculation, enigma Jordy De Goey is their last playing forward and he can do anything. Jordy really can tear games apart, but he can also kick a flashy 2 goals for 60 fantasy points. If Jordy can find a consistently good fantasy game, these Boats are a genuine chance to go all the way. Worth mentioning that if the Boats can make it into the 4, this is the guy that could throw the rest of the team on his back and win it all for the Boars.

Summary

Make no mistake, these Boats can and will do damage. There is no doubt they can challenge for the flag, but I think their biggest issue is going to come from consistency – they have too many players who can put up duds or big 100’s in any given week. Always one to look for a trade, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Camporeale trade in a forward and really push for the premiership. Based on the current list though, it’s heartbreak for the Boats this year.

Rankings:

Defense 3rd

Midfield 2nd

Ruck 7th

Forwards 6th

6th Place – Stars

(Last Year Finished 4th, Last Year Predicted 4th)

Predicted Average: 1609

I almost feel bad about this….the Stars finally lived up to the promise of making finals, and here I have them slipping back down to 6th….I did say almost. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times the Stars must fix their backline. Gavin refuses to do this, or even worse, doesn’t know how. The forward line is still super strong, but they will never make an impact until they fix their damn backline.

Breakout Player – Marcus Bontompelli

The Bont is an absolute Star (pun intended) and after breaking out as a player, is finally starting to learn how to cope with the attention that comes along with that. Bont only averaged 92 for the year, but finished with 4 games over 100 and I think that trend will continue into 2019. Bont is a big body and the pace of game with the new rules will suit him, as he should be able to find some space in the forward line when he wants. The Bulldogs should improve this year, so I’m backing Bont for a 100+ average in 2019.

Time to Slide – Dale Thomas

Daisy somehow popped up to average 85 last year, after being nowhere near that for the 6 years prior. I think it will prove to be a one off as Daisy’s body starts to fail him again, and the Blues look to youth. This is an interesting one, because he looked great last year and really proved that his early demise was 100% body related – don’t under estimate how good he was in his prime. Let’s see how the year unfolds, but realistically this should be Daisy’s swan song.

Make or Break – Reece Conca

For the record, this guy is an out and out spud…… but the fact is Freo have paid up to get him, so he has a huge opportunity this year. Conca sits in the Stars back line which is pretty poor, but Conca really has a chance to become the best player in that line. If Conca can step up and average anything over 80, the Stars have a big opportunity to attack the 4 again, but if he fizzles out (as expected) the Stars still haven’t found their answer. Could Conca be the key to finally fixing the Stars biggest problem?

Summary

I feel like a broken record, but BDC has to do something about that backline….I’ve been saying it for years, and for years they have not threatened the premiership for that very reason. The Stars remain incredibly strong in the forward line and Rocky could do anything again this year…the midfield is solid (although lacks depth) and the ruck stocks are above average……. With guys like Treloar, Rocky etc they can beat anyone on their day, the problem is, most days they wont and the Stars are set to fizzle out to a bottom half finish again.

Rankings

Defense 9th

Midfield 7th

Ruck 4th

Forwards 3rd

7th Place – Rattle$nakes

(Last Year Finished 8th, Last Year Predicted 8th)

Predicted Average: 1607

The once mighty Rattle$nakes are now a perennial bottom 4 team. After 6 finals appearances in the first 7 seasons (including 3 premierships), the Snakes have finished 7th, 8th and are now predicted to finish 7th again. They are in the classic no mans land. Once again Tyson refuses to rebuild in a serious manner and when I look at the likes of the Falcons and Wizards beneath them, its only a matter of time before the Snakes fall below them…..at least the Heat will always act as a buffer to the spoon.

Breakout Player – Brayden Fiorini

An absolute DT gun, Fiorini has been starved of opportunity, due to his poor disposal…but guess what, GC have no choice anymore. They have to hand the reigns over to this young gun, and while hes never gonna be Shaun Burgoyne, he is gonna be a poor mans Tom Mitchell – and I know what id prefer in my fantasy side. Fiorini averaged 91 last year and I am willing to guarantee this increases in 2019. He has averaged over 100 in the JLT and he could easily average 3 figures this year. Fiorini playing week in and week out is a huge plus for the Snakes.

Time to Slide – Scott Pendlebury

I love him….in fact I think everyone bar Putland loves this guy, but the fact is there just isnt room for him in the engine anymore. Beams / Adams / Sidebottom / Treloar / Sier are the big 5 at Collingwood. Pendles will still rotate through the middle at times, but I think he will be rotated through a variety of roles as they figure out how to fit so many midfielders into the side. Even if Pendles does play in the middle (still a big possibility) the very fact that he is getting on in age, will mean you wont be able to rely on him every single week as he is sure to rest or put the jacket on in Q4 of big wins.

Make or Break – Seb Ross

Who saw that coming. “Sebby” as his owner affectionately refers to him, exploded as a fantasy player and it now remains to be seen if that was a one hit wonder, or if he is the real deal. He’s never really going to cop a tag, because he isn’t flash, so realistically he could continue to rack up touches at will. Still only 25, Seb has plenty of years left in him and could either be good DT’er at a 100 point average or elite at 110. Seb is going to form the backbone of this side if they are to be any good over the next few years.

Summary

What more is there to say, lets enjoy watching the Snakes sit in the bottom 4 for the next few years. The funny thing is, they actually have the best midfield in the comp…and by a fair margin as well, but the other 3 lines are deplorable. The backline has some stars, but no depth, the ruck stocks are laughable, even with the one ruck rule giving the Snakes yet another handout and the forward line really lacks punch. Snakes have the firepower to cause a few upsets along the way, but realistically are going to struggle for a while.

Rankings

Defense 8th

Midfield 1st

Ruck 10th

Forwards 9th

8th Place – Falcons

(Last Year Finished 6th, Last Year Predicted 7th)

Predicted Average: 1585

Let’s get one thing out of the way. I love what the Falcons did draft day. Jones, Lukoscious, Quaynor – partnering them, with an already impressive young list of Parish, Heeney, McCluggage – this team has a lot of potential…..but the star quality is just not there for them to make an impact this year. Sure they have Dangerfield and Macrae as two out and out A graders for fantasy, the problem is, there is a lot of C graders between them and the future stars. The backline is the worst in the competition by a fair margin and unfortunately the Falcs have been hit really hard by the #OneRuck ruling.

Breakout Player – Darcy Parish

Parish is one of my “big breakout” players this year – meaning, I think he could explode. I say this because he now has some experience under his belt, but more importantly is surrounded by some serious quality, meaning he will get zero attention from the opposition. Parish is reasonably unassuming, but plays in an attacking side, who will fling the ball around a bit this year. Young, high draft pick, midfield time, surrounded by stars…… all things point to a big tick up in averages.

Time to Slide – Jared Polec

I just cant bring myself to like this bloke, and to make matters worse, he now plays for North. I did not see his breakout coming in any way shape or form, but I think he comes back to the pack this year. At Port he was playing alongside some bulls in Wines, Hartlett, Boak and to be fair he has some similar players at North (Cunnington, Ziebell)…..but I just dont think the quality to get the ball out to him quickly will be there, and I think (hope) he gets found out this year. Averaging 92 last year ,this should slip back into the 80’s this year, and while he will still ton up on ocassion, there will be plenty of duds along the way.

Make or Break – Nic Newman

I mentioned above that the Falcons have by far the worst backline in the comp – well this guy is really the only one that is a chance to be a top tier player. Newman spat out a 29 in JLT2 and if that continues, the Falcons could slip down to 9th – if he becomes a top 5 back though, these Falcs have some potential. For the record, I think he is a top 5 back and the Falcons are a threat to the 4.

Summary

Yes, the Falcons have a bright future, and some top end talent, but there is uncertainty in between and they certainly are not a contender this year. Unlike the Wizards who are young and full of upside, there seems to be a real mix at the Falcs. The Falcs have a higher platform than the Wizards, but probably not the breadth of upside. The young core is going to be super important and Craigy really needs to work a way to build around them. Managed well, this team could genuinely be the team to beat in a few years…. managed poorly and the record of 1 finals appearance in 9 years will remain.

Rankings

Defense 10th

Midfield 8th

Ruck 2nd

Forwards 3rd

9th Place – Wizards

(Last year finished 10th, Last year predicted 10th)

Predicted Average: 1572

Back to back spoons for the Wizards, but the good news is they have bottomed out and are on the way back up. El Marko made the huge call during the draft that there was a lot of upside to the Wizards list and on second review, as always, El Marko is on the money. The midfield is screaming breakout this year with Dom Sheed and Jacob Hopper looking at greater roles, while the backline is one of the more promising in the league. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though…promise is one thing, the here and now is still going to be painful for Putland.

Breakout Player – Dom Sheed

Is Dom. Is good. Is bloody good in fact. He has already etched his name into the history books with that clutch goal in the GF, along with a huge game, but this year he will stamp himself as a gun of the competition. Dom has absolutely racked up the footy in the preseason and is a no brainer when it comes to a breakout player in 2019. I would expect Sheed has now entrenched himself as a permanent part of the core midfield group at WCE and as a result, will not only score well, but should score consistently well. He is your next Wizards captain.

Time to Slide – David Zaharakis

The Wizards side is incredibly young and full of upside, so this was tough. The Bombers midfield is stacked all of a sudden, and Zaharakis is the logical person to be squeezed out. Dylan Shiel along with young guns McGrath and Parish means there will be more bodies rotating through the middle. Zaha averaged 97 last year and I cant see any upside to this number. I’m expecting him to average 90-95 this year and as captain, this is going to hurt the Wizards a lot this year.

Make or Break – Jacob Hopper

Hopper was my other choice for breakout player, so that already tells you that I expect him to be more “make” than “break”, but for a player with a huge fantasy reputation, he hasn’t really delivered yet. GWS midfielders have left in droves over the past few years, which has opened the door wide open for Hopper, all he has to do is step through and make the most of his chance. He is still surrounded by quality and compliments the silky GWS mids well with his tough nosed, bull at a gate approach. If Hopper can truly take the next step in his development and average 85+, the Wizards rise up the ladder could come sooner than expected.

Summary

Short term pain, long term upside. A couple of bleak years for the Wizards with back to back spoons, but all of a sudden the world is looking a little brighter. The Wizards realistically will struggle this year, first and foremost due to their lack of clear captain, with by far the worst captain in the league. At some stage though, a captain will emerge this year (see above: Dom Sheed) and they will be set to take on the finals in 2-3 years time. Enjoy the Wizards at the bottom while it lasts, because they will be coming.

Rankings

Defense 6th

Midfield 9th

Ruck 2nd

Forwards 8th

10th Place – Heat

(Last year finished 9th, Last year predicted 9th)

Predicted Average: 1503

What an absolute basket case of a franchise. Prior to the preseason draft, there was really nothing to like about this side. They’ve managed to draft some long term talent – but boy oh boy is it going to be long term. Coach Owen has really driven this franchise into the ground through sheer neglect and incompetence. After making the finals 3 times in 9 years (and lets not forget one of those includes the famous GF choke), one has to wonder how long this side will be in the wilderness before returning to finals action…..i’m guessing another 9 years is around the mark.

Breakout Player – Lachie Weller

Weller was my breakout player last year and he largely disappointed with an average of 75. There is literally no one left at Gold Coast and he has to improve on that number…. so i am doubling down on him. Weller genuinely looks the goods to me, but doesn’t have a great support network around him at either the Suns or equally deplorable Heat side. By sheer weight of numbers and attendances at centre bounces, Weller should breakout to an 85 average at least.

Time to Slide – Darcy Byrne-Jones

Not a huge name, I admit….but Byrne-Jones was a capable 70 point depth defender last year, but with an injection of youth at Port – I see him falling out of this side at some stage this year. His only reason for being in the Heat side is deptg, because lets face it, there isn’t a huge amount of upside…so watch this space, gone from the Heat list by end of year. (There wasn’t a great list to choose from here).

Make or Break – Luke Dunstan

I’m actually a fan, and I’ll state here that he bounces back in a big way this year. But if the Heat are any chance of lifting off the bottom, this is the bloke that simply must improve. He’s still young and talented, he just needs to find that role that is fantasy friendly and (more importantly) become a must have player for St Kilda. I think he has the game to be a future DT stud, but only time will tell.

Summary

So, the Heat struggle. Its as simple as that. The worst part about this side, is that they cant even cash in on ageing stars – its going to be slow organic growth without much to start with. The midfield is the worst in the league, even with super stud Gaff in the mix. It is going to be a long few years for Arvo….expect a lot more silence as we saw last year.

Rankings

Defense 6th

Midfield 10th

Ruck 7th

Forwards 7th